I was the chapter editor for the third report in the World Bank’s Turn Down the Heat series. In a team of researchers, we studied regional patterns of climate change and climate change impacts for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The World Bank summarized the findings of the results in a blog and press release.
Colleagues from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Climate Analytics, the Overseas Development Institute and the International Centre for Water Resources and Global Change contributed to this chapter.
The region is vulnerable to extreme heat, drought, and aridity with consequences for human health, food production, water resources, land degradation, human migration, tourism and energy systems.
In a research article published in Regional Environmental Change we summarize the findings of the report and discuss the implications for vulnerable population groups, poor farmers and the rural population and urban population and migrants.
Precipitation changes in the Middle East and North Africa region as projected by global climate models. Graphic: Waha et al. 2017.
The figure above shows how seasonal precipitation is projected to change in the future, 2071-2099 relative to 1951-1980. The top row shows changes in boreal winter precipitation for the months December, January and February. The bottom row shows changes in boreal summer precipitation for the months June-July-August. Hatched areas in each map indicate uncertain results, with climate models disagreeing on the direction of change.
Read Marwa Ezzat’s 2021 news article for Al Jazeera (in Arabic).